Trend of the Macroeconomic Variables in Oman: A Time Series Analysis

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Dr. Suresh Esakki, Dr. S. Srinivasan, Dr. Venkatesh Andavar

Abstract

Background: The slight variation in the GDP, export, import of goods and services and price of the oil not only influence the economic activities of diverse areas of an economy but also their dependences. As consider the Oman economy, GDP upshot from the pandemic dwindle this year subsequent last year’s predictable sharp shrinkage for the meantime oil production rebounds and outside demand reinforces. Hence, this paper tries to evaluate the performance of the Oman economy.


Methods: The key objective of this paper is to assess the trend and influence of macroeconomic variables on the economic growth of Oman in the periods of 1990 to 2019. Multi Linear Regression analysis has been employed in our estimation in which GDP is the dependent variable and gross capital formation, gross national expenditure and export and import of goods and services are the determinants.


Conclusions: The volume of GDP, GCF, GNE and export and import of goods and services have amplified from 1990 to 2019 while growth rate to the previous year has noted negative and positive growth rate, however, the above-mentioned parameters are having fragility in the last five years. The volume of independent variables like GCF, GNE and export and import of goods and services has influenced the GDP and it clarified that the economy of Oman is well recital for the behaviours of the above-mentioned macroeconomic variables. Besides, the government policy ought to emphasis on asymmetrical progress of the parameters.

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