Prediction of Lightning Activity in Peninsular Antarctica with the WRF Model

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Rishabh Saxena, Mardina Abdullah, Wayan Suparta, Siti Khalijah Zainudin, Norbayah Yusop, Adriana Maria Gulisano

Abstract

Lightning events and thunderstorms are responsible for severe destructive events and weather-related deaths globally. Additionally, in the Antarctica Peninsula, lightning strikes could lead to ionospheric disturbance, interfering with radio signals, and causing errors.  An increase in recorded extreme weather events has led to the rise in research into more accurate techniques for predicting occurrences like thunderstorms and lightning. Although the causes of lightning are well understood, the prediction of lightning occurrences has been challenging because of its spatial and temporal inconsistency.  In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.0. is used to predict the lighting events of two days in the Carlini base region using the Lightning Potential index. These forecasts were then compared with the observed lightning information from World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) using correlation and regression analysis. The study reveals that LPI,  provides kinetic energy based on meteorological parameters such as updraft and mixing ratio of hydrometeors., accurately predicted precipitation events and lightning flashes. The research agrees with previous studies and shows that the LPI is well correlated to observed lightning events and can be used to enhance the prediction of lightning and thunderstorm occurrences in the future.

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